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No, the Bills鈥� offensive players expect to go for it on fourth down if the circumstances call for it. It doesn鈥檛 matter what part of the game. It doesn鈥檛 matter if they need 2 yards or 3 yards or even 5 yards.

They have offensive coordinator Joe Brady designing the play-call 鈥� advantage, Bills.

And they have quarterback Josh Allen to carry out said play-call 鈥� mega-advantage, Bills.

鈥淚 know we can get the first down at any time,鈥� running back James Cook said.

Through 14 games, the Bills are getting the first almost every time when going for it on fourth down.

Entering Sunday鈥檚 matchup against the New England Patriots, the Bills are a fourth-down marvel 鈥� 14 makes in 16 attempts, a success rate of 87.5%, which is tied for the NFL lead with the Washington Commanders (also 14 of 16) and is the best in league history, according to Pro Football Reference (minimum 15 attempts).

Last year, the Bills converted 56.3% on fourth down (9 of 16). In McDermott鈥檚 first year (2017), it was 13.3% (2 of 15).

Enter Allen, a human bulldozer on quarterback sneaks. But it's not just Allen. Also, enter Brady, who doesn鈥檛 merely settle for Allen keepers on fourth down.

The Bills have gone for it four times in their territory and converted four times.

They have gone for it in the first quarter (six times) more than the fourth quarter (four times).

And they have scored four touchdowns on fourth-down plays.

鈥�(Brady and Allen) do such a good job of breaking tendencies that defenses have to prepare for so much stuff, and that鈥檚 such an advantage to us,鈥� left guard David Edwards said. 鈥淲hether it鈥檚 fourth-and-2 or fourth-and-5, we all have a ton of confidence that Joe and Josh will have a plan and have a play to get us the first down.鈥�

The Bills鈥� aggressiveness semi-mirrors the NFL trend. Touchdowns are better than field goals. Duh, right? But so is trusting your 11 men to get a yard or 2 or 3 on fourth down than settling for a field goal. No kidding, right?

鈥淚 think (McDermott) trusts Joe to make the right calls and to be aggressive when we need to be,鈥� tight end Dawson Knox said. 鈥淚 love that he trusts us to make the plays.鈥�

Coaches more aggressive

Ten years ago, in the NFC championship game, a first-drive interception by Seattle set up Green Bay for an early lead. The Packers faced a fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line 鈥� and coach Mike McCarthy sent out Mason Crosby for an 18-yard field goal.

A Seattle fumble on the ensuing kickoff set up Green Bay for a two-possession lead. The Packers faced another fourth-and-goal from the 1 鈥� and McCarthy again sent out Crosby for a 19-yard field goal.

Instead of 14-0, it was 6-0. Instead of taking control midway through the second quarter, the Packers led 16-0. They eventually lost 28-22 in overtime.

How the times and philosophies have changed in the last 10, 20, 30 years.

Back then: A coach thought about going for it on fourth down from the 1. In 1990, teams attempted 29 field goals of 18 or 19 yards. In 1995, it was 25 field goals, followed by 29 in 2000, 14 in 2005 and 20 in 2010. But then, changes. Big changes. Aggressive changes.

Now: A coach automatically keeps an offense on the field to punch it over the goal line. Teams attempted 10 field goals of 18-19 yards in 2015. Fast-forward five years 鈥� seven, one, four, one and two such field goals from 2020-24.

鈥淓verything changed on fourth down after the Eagles the Super Bowl (after the 2017 season),鈥� said Aaron Schatz, chief analytics officer at FTN Fantasy.

The Eagles went 17 of 26 on fourth down in the regular season and 3 of 3 in the playoffs.

鈥淭hey say that the NFL is a copycat league, and the thing that other teams chose to copy from the Eagles was wising up on fourth down and going for it more aggressively,鈥� Schatz said. 鈥淭here was a notable shift in 2018.鈥�

In 2014, teams combed for 388 fourth-down plays and converted 181 times (46.6%). In 2018, after the Eagles won the Super Bowl, teams went 259 of 460 (56.1%). The frequency has only kept climbing 鈥� 648 attempts in 2023 (50.9% success) and through 15 weeks this year, 357 of 615 (58%).

Touchdowns 鈥� not just points 鈥� are at a premium.

In all but one of his seasons (2020), McDermott has gone for it at least 15 times.

鈥�(McDermott) is usually among the more aggressive coaches; the difference is the Bills are having so much success,鈥� Schatz said.

In the last four years, the Bills鈥� success rate has risen from 50% to 53.8% to the aforementioned 56.3% and 87.5% the last two seasons.

Since 1984, the Bills' low-water mark for fourth-down attempts is eight, set in four separate seasons (1989, 1993, 1998 and 2012).

This year, according to Pro Football Network, the Bills are well ahead of the league when needing 1-2 yards on fourth down. The Bills are 100% 鈥� 11 of 11听鈥� and the NFL average is 69.2%. The Bills are the first team since Atlanta in 2010 to be perfect in that situation through 15 weeks.

More data from PFN: The Bills have gone for it on 18.8% of their fourth-down snaps, 15th in the league. 鈥� In close games (one possession), the Bills have the fourth-highest rate (24.1%). 鈥� The Bills go for it on 17.9% of first-half fourth downs (sixth-highest rate).

The thing to remember about the Bills鈥� fourth-down strategy is that the metric isn鈥檛 skewed by desperation fourth-down plays, save for one: The fourth-and-5 touchdown pass to Keon Coleman in Houston, which cut the Texans鈥� lead to 20-17. Every other scenario, McDermott wasn鈥檛 forced into going for it.

As Knox said, McDermott simply trusted the plan.

Conversions create momentum

In Week 2, the Bills had a fourth-and-3 from the Miami 17. Only 4:05 had elapsed and the game was scoreless, but after a takeaway, McDermott 鈥� perhaps sensing a track meet-type game 鈥� kept the offense on the field.

On the first try, Allen was in the shotgun, had receivers Mack Hollins and Khalil Shakir bunched to the right, Cook off his right hip and receiver Curtis Samuel in motion. The Bills called timeout.

Different personnel? No. Different formation? No, save for Cook switching to off Allen鈥檚 left hip.

At the snap, Cook ran to the left flat and was wide open when Dolphins linebacker David Long was picked by Hollins.

鈥淲e called timeout and then we checked back into the (original) play and then, touchdown,鈥� Cook said. 鈥淲e鈥檒l work on plays like that the whole week.鈥�

The Bills rolled to a 31-10 win over Miami and the fourth-down tone was established 鈥� they started 9 of 9 and didn鈥檛 have their first failed fourth-down play until Week 10.

The Bills are 7 for 7 on fourth-and-1; 4 for 4 on fourth-and-2; 2 of 4 on fourth-and-3; and 1 of 1 on fourth-and-5.

Allen has converted eighth fourth downs on rushes, including his 26-yard touchdown to clinch the Kansas City game. But what's impressive about the Bills鈥� work is how they aren鈥檛 about one trick (Allen running).

After the Cook touchdown catch, there was a 49-yard touchdown by Coleman (Week 5 at Houston), a 1-yard touchdown by Hollins (Week 9 vs. Miami) and last week at Detroit, a 31-yard catch by running back Ty Johnson.

What Brady hasn鈥檛 done is overcomplicate his fourth-down run-game plan. Why toss it back 5 yards, or have Allen retreat to do the traditional handoff? Allen has all eight fourth-down rush attempts, and if that鈥檚 the call, that鈥檚 the call.

鈥淚f we have a sneak called, we鈥檒l be all-in on the sneak,鈥� guard O'Cyrus Torrence said. 鈥�(Going for it) builds up our confidence, knowing the only way we鈥檒l be stopped is a self-inflicted wound. We鈥檙e not going to be stopped (otherwise).鈥�

The Bills鈥� 鈥淕o For It Plan鈥� is finalized on Saturday morning of a game week, when McDermott and Brady gather quarterbacks coach Ronald Curry, passing game specialist/game management coach Marc Lubick and the quarterbacks (Allen, Mitchell Trubisky, Mike White and Shane Buechele) for a strategy session.

The coaching staff will present different game situations from around the league that serve as a think tank of hypothetical questions. What if 鈥�? How about 鈥�? If this happens 鈥�?

鈥淭wo-minute, end-of-half, when to go for it 鈥� any type of special game situation,鈥� said White, who is on the Bills鈥� practice squad. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 your time to talk it out and say, 鈥業f we鈥檙e in that situation, this is what we鈥檒l do.鈥� 鈥�

White credits Brady with being malleable on those fourth-down plays.

鈥淛oe does a good job saying, 鈥榃hat does Josh love here?鈥� 鈥� White said. 鈥淵ou could see another team run a play and other places I鈥檝e been (Miami and the Jets), they try to run that exact same play. Joe will dress it up differently and the guys know the play so well and own it, it helps you have success.鈥�

And that fourth-down success leads to touchdowns and momentum. The Bills have converted a fourth down on 14 possessions this year; they have scored touchdowns on the play or later in the drive 11 times.

鈥淲hen you鈥檙e driving and they can鈥檛 stop you, it takes the breath out of the defense,鈥� Cook said.

Said Edwards: 鈥淚t gives us the juice to keep going on that (drive).鈥�

All told, the Bills鈥� fourth-down go-for-it plays have an average-to-go distance of 2.0 yards; their 14 conversions have an average gain of 12.5 yards. Game-changing swings. And expect McDermott to remain aggressive. His coordinator has proven adept at scheming up the play and his players equally able to execute.

鈥淚t鈥檚 been awesome putting guys in spots where they feel like they can go have the opportunity to win (their matchup),鈥� Allen said. 鈥淎nd our guys have been winning.鈥�

Fourth-down success

A game-by-game look when the Bills go for it on fourth down (they did not attempt a fourth down against the New York Jets, Tennessee or L.A. Rams):

Making History

The Bills are making team and league history with their effectiveness on fourth down (minimum 15 attempts):

Bills history

NFL history (since 1984)

Tied for fifth at 80% are Kansas City (2018), New Orleans (2017), New England (2006) and Minnesota (1986).