One would think the Aaron Rodgers soap opera has only two games to go in the Big Apple. Sunday could be the last time the future Hall of Fame quarterback plays in Orchard Park.
The New York Jets will be starting over in 2025 with a new general manager and a new head coach. Does the new regime really want to be saddled with the 41-year-old Rodgers as it begins its overhaul of the roster?
Rodgers will count $49 million in dead space against the salary cap if the Jets release him and decide not to spread out the pain of his cap hit over the 2025 and 2026 seasons.
It鈥檚 a big dead cap hit, but the Jets easily can compensate for it by releasing 32-year-old receiver Davante Adams. He would count $38 million if he鈥檚 on the Jets in 2025 (which is hard to fathom) but is a cap hit of only $8 million if he鈥檚 released. That鈥檚 a $30 million savings.
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Bills defensive end A.J. Epenesa sacks Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers in Buffalo鈥檚 Week 6 win.
Take your medicine and start fresh. Any GM candidate likely would give that advice to Jets owner Woody Johnson. And the Athletic reported last month that Johnson suggested benching Rodgers after the Jets got off to a 2-2 start this season.
Yet the Jets have made a lot of bad decisions to get themselves into their current mess, so a return of Rodgers for one more year can鈥檛 be ruled out. What would it look like?
Rodgers is due a $35 million option bonus if he鈥檚 on the roster next season, which if it was paid would make his cap hit for 2025 $30 million. That also means he鈥檇 then count $86.5 million in dead cap charges (spread over 2026 and 2027) presuming they released him after 2025. Ouch.
Rodgers has suggested he鈥檚 willing to take a pay cut, so he may be willing to trim that $35 million bonus. The website Over the Cap speculated that if Rodgers cut the bonus to $22 million, then the Jets would be facing a dead cap charge of $52.6 million in 2026 (or $18.3 million in 2026 and $34.3 million in 2027).
Yet if the Jets bring back Rodgers, he鈥檚 going to want the team to go all in, or mostly all in on the season. It makes no sense to bring Rodgers back and chart a rebuilding course. That means spending more on short-term fixes, aging veterans and taking gambles in free agency, which effectively puts more money on the credit card, not less.
How has that worked out for the Jets?
The tough reality for the Jets is they almost surely won鈥檛 be able to solve their quarterback problem in the draft in 2025, due to the thin QB crop coming out of college. And by moving on from Rodgers and taking their medicine in 2025, they will be wasting cheap contract years for a bunch of their young stars, like cornerback Sauce Gardner, receiver Garrett Wilson, running back Breece Hall and edge rusher Will McDonald.
Rodgers was realistic about the process on his future with New York reporters this week.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a GM that has to get hired I would assume first, and then he鈥檚 going to be part of hiring the head coach,鈥 Rodgers said. 鈥淪o I have to be in the plans of multiple people, starting with the ownership and then the GM, and then the head coach.鈥
Rodgers said he鈥檇 be willing to be a mentor to a young quarterback next season. What would it mean if the Jets wanted him back?
鈥淚t鈥檇 mean that they see me as an important part of helping the culture, the changeover, whatever they do at head coach, and helping the next wave of New York Jets,鈥 he said. 鈥淭hat鈥檇 be special to hear that, but if they don鈥檛, again, no offense at all will be taken.鈥
Of course, a new coach would have to be willing to let Rodgers be the de facto offensive coordinator again in 2025.
That鈥檚 another reason a Rodgers return to the Jets is hard to fathom.
Target grumbling
In the nine games Adams has played for the Jets, he has 56 catches on 93 targets. Over that stretch, Wilson has 49 catches on 79 targets. In last week鈥檚 loss to the Rams, Wilson had only three targets before the final drive. He clearly wasn鈥檛 thrilled about it. Look for the Jets to feed him some passes early Sunday.
鈥淗e could be No. 1 in the progression and not get the ball,鈥 Rodgers said this week. 鈥淗e could be on the back side of the progression and get the ball, just depends on how defenses play it. So, there鈥檚 a ton of plays in the plan for both him and Davante. That鈥檚 how you usually scheme out plays for your top players. So, there鈥檚 a ton of plays for Garrett, a ton of plays for Davante, they, most of the time, get called. And it鈥檚 just a matter of me reading the defense out and getting the ball to the right spot.鈥
Taron on track
Taron Johnson will play his 100th regular-season game on Sunday. Johnson led all NFL cornerbacks in tackles last season with 98 in 17 games. Johnson missed five games due to injury this year, so his tackle total is down, with 61. But on a per-game basis, Johnson is on track to equal or slightly exceed his tackle rate from last season.
Asked what he would tell his rookie self, Johnson said:
鈥淔ind out what you need to excel at your position and follow other guys that are excelling in the league already and work on it harder than anything else.鈥
Division rivalry
In five meetings against the Jets over the past three seasons, the Bills have averaged 21.6 points and 323 yards, well under their season averages. Josh Allen has seven TD passes and six interceptions in those games.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 care what the records are, I don鈥檛 care if none of us have a win,鈥 Bills offensive tackle Dion Dawkins said. 鈥淭hese are some of the hardest games of the season 鈥 Jets, Patriots, Dolphins. No matter when it is, no matter what order it is, they are the hardest games of our season every single year. It鈥檚 always great competition, the rivalry is great, the intensity is up and I like to think and live in an aura like we hate each other. That鈥檚 what keeps us going.鈥
The 30,000-foot view
The Jets鈥 postseason drought now is 14 seasons, the longest in the NFL. The Jets have won six or fewer games eight times in that stretch, and their cumulative record is 81-145, a win percentage of .358. The Bills鈥 win percentage during their 17-year playoff drought was .412.
Stats for the road
From NFL Next Gen Stats, Allen was 3 of 10 passing for 17 yards and an INT versus Cover 1 (man coverage with one safety deep) in the first half against the Patriots. In the second half against Cover 1, Allen was only slightly better, completing 3 of 7 passes for 33 yards and a TD. ... The Jets roll with 11 personnel (three wide receivers) a lot (69.4%), 11th most in the NFL, according to Sumersports data. The league average is 60.4%.
