The Buffalo Bills' 24-21 victory over the New England Patriots was significant and important. Don鈥檛 get lost in the lack of offensive numbers in this game from Josh Allen. Instead, take a long look the Patriots' defensive strategy and the slower weather conditions. Focus on the meaning of this win to the Bills franchise 鈥 beating a divisional opponent late in the season and finishing with momentum heading into the playoffs.
All too often, Bills teams in the past have found ways to lose games with similar circumstances against lesser opponents. This has been the difference this year.
Allen鈥檚 value in this game superseded his QBR, his passer rating and even his performance grade because of the Patriots' strategy. Allen's presence actually dictated the defensive schemes, whether he was making plays or not. This opened the door for the Bills to run the football 鈥 and once offensive coordinator Joe Brady settled into a balanced attack, the Bills鈥 offense excelled and rushed the football for 172 yards.
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New England played Allen differently than other teams. The Patriots gave Allen time in the pocket with controlled four-man rushes, while playing tight and disruptive man-to-man coverage with, intending to undercut his throws. The Bills struggled with this in the first half after falling behind 14-0 and rushing only six times on their 23 plays.
New England was betting that Allen, with more time than he needed, would make a mistake or two and turn over the football. Allen did succumb to their trap with one interception that was borne of sheer impatience and frustration. But he regained his composure and played a tremendously efficient second half. The Patriots' recipe of controlled rushes, trail-technique man coverage, and actually giving Allen more time in the pocket was effective.
The cold temperature 鈥 remember, it tumbled to 7 degrees in Orchard Park during the game 鈥 also leveled the talent on the field and impacted his playmaking ability. This was the dangerous recipe that Allen and the Bills overcame in a way they haven鈥檛 in recent history.
Three second-half takeaways by the Buffalo defense, following one of the most porous first halves to date, gave Allen enough space to lead the Bills to victory. Allen completed 16 of 29 attempts for 154 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while rushing six times for a total of 30 yards. This was not a sensational statistical performance from the MVP front-runner, but a leadership victory that solidified Allen as a cornerstone of franchise success. He answered the call and was able to do just enough to overcome the Patriots鈥 plan, as well as Mother Nature.
FIRST QUARTER
Play selection: Six plays (three passes, three runs)
Allen: 1 for 3 passing, 5 yards; one carry for 2 yards.
Performance grade: 83%
Score: Patriots, 7-0.
The Bills鈥 defense struggled to slow down the Patriots for the entire first half. The first quarter itself was consumed by two Patriots鈥 scoring possessions. They scored first on the opening drive, and after that, Allen and the Bills鈥 offense struggled to find a rhythm. After a short quarterback sneak by Allen to get a first down, the Patriots stuffed a run by Ray Davis, and two consecutive incompletions resulted in a punt. (On the season, the Bills have scored 47 points on opening drives, which is fourth-most in the NFL.)
The Patriots proceeded to march 91 yards on 16 plays to score again, effectively draining 9:57 from the game clock.
The Patriots' fast start impacted the momentum early in this game as the 14-point underdogs dominated, moving the football at will and taking the early lead. New England converted every third down they attempted in the quarter, 4 of 4.
The time of possession illustrated just how dominant the Patriots offense was 鈥 and how incapable the Bills鈥 defense seemed to be. New England controlled the football for 12:12 and prevented Allen from getting onto the field.
SECOND QUARTER
Play selection: 17 plays (14 passes, three runs)
Allen: 8 for 14 passing, 73 yards, one INT; one carry for 4 yards
Performance grade: 76%
Score: Patriots, 14-7.
The Patriots scored their second touchdown of the game as they finished the drive that began on their own 9-yard line in the first quarter.
On this Buffalo defensive play, Dawuane Smoot exemplified the Bills鈥 defensive woes early in this game. Smoot was not accounted for or blocked, but he missed the tackle that would have prevented this second touchdown. The Buffalo defense just wasn鈥檛 making enough plays despite being in position. This touchdown gave New England a surprising 14-0 lead.
At this point, the Patriots had run 22 plays to the Bills鈥 six, and had accumulated 141 total yards to the Bills' 11 yards. This was the set of adverse circumstances that Allen had to deal with. It is difficult for a quarterback with Allen鈥檚 ability to be on the bench 鈥 particularly at home, with fans chanting "M-V-P!"
Allen was itching to get on the field and put points on the board. In a way, this was Allen鈥檚 main test for this particular game. Could he manage to get the offense back into this game despite the deficit and frigid conditions?
Allen and the Bills鈥 offense delivered a much-needed answer on their next drive. James Cook ripped off a 46-yard touchdown run that capped a four-play, 70-yard drive. This built momentum as a collective sigh of relief was felt by Bills fans across the country.
1. James Cook's 46-yard TD run vs. Patriots
To this point, the Bills鈥 offense had run just 10 plays, five of which were runs. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady was operating with equal run/pass balance. This balance has become a very important element for offensive success, as defenses cannot focus on stopping Allen and simultaneously stop the run.
Here, on first-and-10, Brady used the personnel combination of Alec Anderson and fullback Reggie Gilliam for this stretch run. Anderson and Gilliam had double-teams, as did left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard David Edwards, who moved the defenders laterally and backward. The heavy flow of the play caused the defenders to over-pursue to the outside as they anticipated an outside flow with Cook鈥檚 initial track.
The key to this touchdown, however, was the great backside blocking. Connor McGovern scooted and jumped play-side to seal his man, while right guard O'Cyrus Torrence attacked and sealed his linebacker all the way across the formation. This was an example of what makes the Bills such a great rushing team. They possess the power, the versatility of personnel, and quickness to get themselves in the right leverage to allow Cook, Davis and Ty Johnson, all of whom have different styles, to read and react.
This touchdown was important because it put the Bills in a position to get back into the game, reducing the Patriots鈥 lead to 14-7.
This was followed by the Patriots鈥 first punt of the game, giving Allen and the Bills鈥 offense an opportunity to tie the score.
2. Josh Allen's cool pass play to James Cook for a 16-yard gain
This was a nice drive-starting play design by Brady. Here he used "21" personnel (two running backs, one tight end) to invite the Patriots鈥 defenders to pursue the initial fake to Allen鈥檚 right. The idea was to influence the linebackers to flow with Gilliam鈥檚 motion, while at the same time releasing Dawson Knox across the field in the other direction.
Watch as Allen fakes the toss and immediately looks at the linebackers. Sione Takitaki did not buy the fake. This tells Allen to flip the ball into the flat to Cook, who now has Gilliam as a blocker.
This was a creative way to attempt to catch the Patriots over-pursuing again. Had Takitaki reacted to the fake pitch, Allen would have hit Knox in the space聽Takitaki had vacated. This was an easy way for Brady to use Gilliam to try to influence the defense, giving Allen either a quick throw to Knox or one to Cook.
Five plays later, following a false start on Amari Cooper, the Bills鈥 offense found themselves in a third-and-16.
3. Josh Allen's ill-advised interception on a deep pass to the end zone vs. Patriots
Here, the Patriots employed a four-man pass rush and played "Cover-1 robber." This meant that the five Buffalo receivers each had man-to-man coverage with one free safety, Marte Mapu, in the deep middle of the field, and safety Kyle Duggar reading/"robbing" Allen鈥檚 eyes in the middle of the field.
Robber was a great defensive call for the Patriots as Duggar鈥檚 presence discouraged throws in the middle, as well as making him a spy for Allen rushing the football. Allen had no one to throw to on this play as each receiver was covered. Keon Coleman had beaten his defender initially, but by the time Allen shuffled to his right, the Patriots had made up for that difference.
Allen launched this 55-yard throw on a wing and a prayer, hoping Coleman would make a box-out-rebound-style play, but that never happened. This interception was Allen鈥檚 first turnover in 224 plays. The combination of the sticky coverage, the third-and-16 position, the score and the bitter cold made it a perfect storm.
The Bills鈥 defense responded on the next series, however, as Smoot stripped running back Antonio Gibson on a third-and-2. The Patriots recovered the football but were forced to punt from their own 23-yard line with 4 minutes remaining in the half.
The Patriots, however, surprised the Bills' punt-return unit with a successful fake that resulted in a first down. New England snapped the ball to the protector, Dell Pettus, who dove forward with a surging wedge style blocking scheme that pushed the Bills backward.
This was a tremendous gamble for the Patriots as they successfully kept Allen off the field for another set of downs. Credit New England for the guts to take the risk at a time when they were trying to continue their momentum. This was a crafty, deceptive and unique time to run a fake, and it caught the Bills off guard.
This fake punt did not yield points for New England, but it did drain more than two minutes from the clock before they punted the ball back to the Bills. This left Allen with just 1:48 remaining and all three timeouts.
The man-to-man coverage techniques of the Patriots were different than the Bills have seen in recent weeks. They were locked on across the formation, unlike many of the split-field coverages that match their man coverage as players come into their areas. This seemed to create a problem for the Buffalo receivers getting separation. This was because this style of trail-technique coverage is different from the capping, upfield shoulder style of man-to-man played in split-field coverage.
The Patriots' defensive backs played in the hip pockets of the Buffalo receivers in position to undercut throws. This requires a quarterback to make what I would term 鈥渁bove the rim鈥-style throws. Allen was almost picked early in the drive as Mapu undercut a low and hard laser to Khalil Shakir.
Undercutting techniques are problematic for big-armed quarterbacks like Allen, who want to get the ball to the receiver on a line. Conversely, upfield-shoulder-style man-to-man techniques match to the player who becomes their responsibility by counting from outside to inside. These matching defenses may switch and match, which forces them to play higher and on top of the players they are matched with. This style requires quarterbacks to throw receivers down and open. To Allen鈥檚 credit, he recognized this Patriots' strategy of trail-technique and adjusted, using more touch.
The Bills punted before halftime with 17 seconds left.
Plain and simple, the Patriots dominated time of possession in the half, 20:20 to 9:40. They had 17 first downs to the Bills鈥 eight, and they converted on 5 of 8 third downs (the Bills converted on just 1 of 4 attempts). Additionally, the Patriots outgained the Bills in total yards (239-139), passing yards (159-78) and rushing yards (80-61). The Bills were outplayed and out-executed.
The one surprising statistic for the Bills鈥 offense in this half was the fact that on 23 total plays, only six were runs. Following Cook's 46-yard touchdown run, the Bills didn鈥檛 execute a single running play to a running back for the remainder of the second quarter. That meant that from the 10:58 mark of the second quarter, Brady did not call a single running play to Cook, Davis, or Johnson but instead threw the football 12 times while rushing Allen once.
This played into the Patriots' plan of rushing four and dropping seven into coverage to stop Allen. Brady should have returned to the ground following Cook鈥檚 long run, getting back to what was working.
Allen completed 9 of 17 for 78 yards and had one interception in just nine minutes of work in the half. It was the Patriots鈥 man coverage, their trail techniques, their undercutting and their four-man rushes that demonstrated their game plan 鈥 force the Bills to win this game with anyone but Allen.
THIRD QUARTER
Play selection: 18 plays (seven passes, 10 runs)
Allen: 4 for 7 passing, 38 yards, one touchdown, one sack; one carry for 12 yards
Performance grade: 98%
Score: Bills, 17-14.
Brady鈥檚 opening drive of the third quarter had nearly as many rushes as the Bills had utilized in the whole first half. Cook rushed five times in nine plays and caught a touchdown pass three plays after this important third-down conversion.
4. Third-and-3: Josh Allen hot read to Dalton Kincaid, setting up a TD pass
Here, the Patriots blitzed Allen with a six-man pressure and played man-to-man Cover-0. The Bills were in a five-man protection, which required Allen to know who he was throwing it to if the Patriots blitzed one more player than they could block.
Allen saw the blitz to his left, and Dawkins blocked the most dangerous gap, his inside. So Allen coolly hit Kincaid behind blitzing linebacker Jahlani Tavai.
This looks like business as usual, but this level of processing and execution is not easy. This conversion set up this touchdown pass to Cook.
5. Josh Allen's nice-and-easy TD pass to James Cook
On third-and-goal, Brady called this play to Cook, knowing the Patriots would be in man-to-man coverage. The tight formation brought all 11 defenders inside with their responsibilities. Brady used two motions. The first was a yo-yo motion by Cook, which confirmed Jaylinn Hawkins was defending Cook. Next, Shakir motioned across, then looped around Allen, then back to Allen鈥檚 right. All this motion basically took聽Shakir's defender out of the play.
Coleman and Hollins ran interference routes, with the intention to make Hawkins take the long way over the top of their routes to try to cover the speedy Cook from the backfield.
Brady knew that the Patriots鈥 defenders don鈥檛 play split-field principles, but rather cover their players wherever they go, a principle known as MEG (Man Everywhere they Go). This design used this knowledge, gained in film study, to make it all but impossible for Hawkins to cover Cook from the backfield all the way across the field.
The Bills finally tied the game with 9:41 remaining in the quarter, 14-14.
On the Patriots鈥 next drive, Greg Rousseau stripped running back Rhamondre Stevenson, and Dorian Williams recovered. This turn of events evened the turnovers to one per team and gave the Bills鈥 offense the chance to take the lead for the first time.
Allen took over on the Patriots鈥 42-yard line but could not get past the 30. On third-and-10, Allen was fooled and sacked as the Patriots bluffed a blitz against the Bills' five-man protection.
Here, the Bills are blocking with only five lineman. McGovern and Allen set the protection to the Mike linebacker to the right. This set the protection to the right as McGovern, O鈥機yrus and Brown all stepped to sort the four potential rushers to their side. The left Patriots safety, Mapu, circled in yellow, became unaccounted for in the blocking scheme because the only two remaining blockers were Edwards and Dawkins. There was not a third protector to account for Mapu.
Allen could have adjusted the protection had he anticipated the actual blitz to his left, but the Patriots did a stealthy job of not showing it.
Watch how controlled Mapu blitzed. He did not come off the edge with speed and abandon, but with a measured persistence. This was a terrific pre-snap alignment by the Patriots that fooled the Bills into a right protection call while blitzing from the left. McGovern didn鈥檛 have anyone to block on the play because his Mike linebacker and the other potential edge rusher fell into coverage.
This sack forced Tyler Bass' 50-yard field goal that gave the Bills their first lead of the game, 17-14.
On the Patriots鈥 next drive, Cam Lewis, playing safety because of injuries, intercepted Drake Maye. This marked the second turnover of the half for the Bills鈥 defense.
The Bills' 10 points in this quarter, combined with the two defensive takeaways, turned the tide and gave the Bills momentum. Additionally, Brady changed his play-calling and achieved better balance in the quarter, with 10 runs to eight passes. This countered the Patriots' game plan and took advantage of what New England was giving the Bills 鈥 great running opportunities against a four-man front.
FOURTH QUARTER
Play selection: 16 plays (five passes, 11 runs)
Allen: 3 for 5 passing, 38 yards; three carries for 11 yards.
Performance grade: 94%
Score: Bills, 24-21
Allen and the Bills鈥 offense tried but could not sustain their drive, as two more penalties ruined their momentum: first, a holding call on Torrence that nullified a 13-yard gain, and then a false start on Brown that turned a third-and-4 into a third-and-9.
The Bills punted and pinned the Patriots inside their own 15-yard line.
Then, on second-and-8, the Patriots made the mistake of the game. Maye threw a live backward pass to his running back, Stevenson, on a swing route. Taron Johnson recovered this live ball in the end zone for a Bills defensive touchdown.
This put the Bills in a two-score position, 24-14, and marked the third turnover of the second half for New England. This was a catastrophic mistake by Maye as the turnover and touchdown sapped the life out of the Patriots.
To the Patriots鈥 credit, they battled on their final drive and scored a touchdown with 1:13 remaining. This possession was 13 plays and totaled 75 yards in 3:16.
The Bills took possession following their recovery of an onside kick. The Bills needed to stay inbounds and maintain possession to force the Patriots to use their remaining timeouts, which they did. Brady called four straight tosses to Johnson to the left and finally ran a sneak on fourth-and-1 with Allen to seal the victory.
CONCLUSION
The Patriots鈥 defensive attack was unusual and effective as they were physical in their man-to-man technique and this seemed to suffocate the Bills鈥 receivers.
The four-man controlled rushes prevented Allen from escaping and making any long runs, but also kept him in the pocket longer than he wanted to be. The Patriots running up an early lead set the stage for Brady to get away from the run/pass balance he is known for in the second quarter.
All of these factors played a role, combined with the time of possession so heavily in favor of the Patriots. One thing I鈥檝e noticed about this team that makes them different from other Bills teams is the importance of balance between the run and the pass. This balance provides the structure for Allen to operate without the entire defensive focus.
The Bills flipped the script on the Patriots in the second half as they doubled their offensive time of possession and took the ball away three times. The Bills ran the football 21 times and Allen himself completed 7 of 12 passes in the second half to dig out of the hole they had created.
As the rushing increased for the Bills鈥 offense, so, too, did the time of possession for the offense. These elements play off of each other and will certainly be important as the Bills head into the playoffs.
The lesson of this game was that without balance between the run and the pass, Allen and the Bills are vulnerable. Though the defense has moments of greatness, taking the football away and making plays when necessary, they aren鈥檛 dominant.
And so the Bills' formula for success continues to run through consistent and balanced execution, and the ability to win the turnover differential. The 12-3 Bills lead the NFL with a plus-20 turnover margin.
I don鈥檛 think there is a team in football that can beat a balanced Bills offense while losing the turnover differential, and that is why the rushing piece for these Bills is so important for their future successes.
Overall QB Performance Grade: 88%
Passing: 16 of 29 passes (55%), 154 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack
Rushing: Six carries, 30 yards
QBR: 28.7
Passer Rating: 67.3